SEARCH ARTICLE

21 Pages : 198-208

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2020(V-I).21      10.31703/gssr.2020(V-I).21      Published : Mar 2020

Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies)

    This study is aimed to examine the impact of US News and exchange rate exposure on emerging economies of Pakistan, China, Turkey and Iran. Daily exchange rates have been used for the period Jan 1, 2003 to Dec 31, 2018 to identify the volatility in exchange rate exposure due to news effect. US News is modeled with variance equation respectively for each country exchange rate. GARCH (1,1) by Bollerslev (1986), and EGARCH (1,1) by Nelson (1991) models have been used to estimate the volatility of exchange rate dynamics. Results indicate that impact of US News is significantly positive on the exchange rate of Pakistan and China and the results of US news impact on Turkey and Iran are insignificant. Present study is helpful for investors, financial analysts and economic decision makers for understanding the changing dynamics of exchange rate volatility.

    Exchange rate, EGARCH, US News Impact Curve, Volatility.
    (1) Rana Shahid Imdad Akash
    Assistant Professor,School of Business Management,NFC-IEFR, Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (2) Kashif Hamid
    Assistant Professor,Institute of Business Management Sciences,University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (3) Iqbal Mahmood
    Associate Professor,Government College of Commerce, Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.

41 Pages : 399 ‒ 409

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2020(V-I).41      10.31703/gssr.2020(V-I).41      Published : Mar 2020

Eurozone Crisis and Asymmetric Volatility Spillover between the Stock Markets of Selected Emerging Asian and Developed Economies

    The study examines the volatility spillover between selected emerging Asian and developed stock markets. Moreover, the study analyzes the impact of the financial crisis on volatility spillover between the stock markets. This study used monthly observations for the period 2001-01 to 2017-12 on three emerging markets of Pakistan, China, India and three developed markets of Hong Kong, Japan and the US. First, the asymmetric volatility transmission between the stocks is analyzed by extended EGARCH representation. The study found the existence of asymmetric volatility spillovers throughout the financial crisis. The researcher estimated the VECM granger causality test in the next step. The outcomes revealed existence of bidirectional spillover between Pakistan and India, the US to Japan and Hong Kong. Unidirectional relationship was found from Pakistan and the US to Hong Kong, India to the US and Hong Kong to China. Overall, the results suggest a significant relationship between emerging and developed markets due to integration.

    EGARCH, Eurozone Crisis, Emerging Economies, Developed Economies, Volatility Spillover, VECM.
    (1) Muzammil Hussain
    PhD Scholar,Department of Economics,University of Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (2) Rehmat Ullah Awan
    Associate Professor, Department of Economics,University of Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (3) Hammad Hassan
    Assistant Professor,Department of NOON Business School, University of Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan.

50 Pages : 384-390

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-II).50      10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-II).50      Published : Jun 2019

Overconfidence Bias: Empirical Examination of Trading Turnover and Market Returns

    Theory of overconfidence states that investors are highly overconfident when valuing the stocks. Self-attribution has been found by the researchers as the root cause for overconfidence bias in investors. Investors attribute the high stock prices and returns with their own art of picking up the stocks, and thus they trade more frequently. In order to test overconfidence and self-attribution Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model has been employed to find out the long-term relationship between endogenous variables: market return and market turnover and exogenous variables: volatility and dispersion. Results revealed that there exists a strong positive relationship between market returns and trading turnover. Also, the crosssectional standard deviation in market prices i-e volatility and the cross-sectional variation in stock returns i-e dispersion has a very strong impact on trading pattern and returns. Since investment decisions made by Pakistani investor largely depend upon psychological factors, giving less weightage to all the fundamentals, the trading pattern exhibited may collectively tend the market behave in an irrational manner.

    Stock Returns, Volatility, Overconfidence, Self-Attribution, Vector Auto-Regressive Model
    (1) Syeda Faiza Urooj
    Assistant Professor, Department of Commerce, Federal Urdu University of Arts Science & Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan.
    (2) Nosheen Zafar
    Accounts Officer, Accountant General Pakistan Revenue, Islamabad, Pakistan.
    (3) Muzammal Ilyas Sindhu
    Lecturer, Department of commerce, Federal Urdu University of Science and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan

08 Pages : 77-86

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2021(VI-II).08      10.31703/gssr.2021(VI-II).08      Published : Jun 2021

New Continuum of High Volatile Currency Spillover During EU-BREXIT

    In this study, the researchers observed the impact of Brexit on the Pound and its spillover to other European countries, likely to be affected during that period. The intraday high-frequency hourly return data of chief monies as Great Britain Pound (GBP), Euro (EUR), Danish Krone (DDK), Hungarian Forint (HUF), Turkish Lira (TRY), Swiss Franc (CHF), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Polish Zloty (PLN), for two months and one day, was utilized. The Intraday volatility spillover index approach and a further rolling window technique applied. The analysis of high-frequency data revealed that four currency pairs as TRY/USD, DKK/USD, PLN/USD, and HUF/USD, are highly volatile currencies. However, three pair currencies as GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and SEK/USD, are comparatively lesser volatile. The results and managerial implications reflect preparedness dynamics and proactiveness for a new continuum project that regional transmission effects of volatility spread from one currency to other currencies in the EU during Brexit.

    Brexit, Forex Market, Volatility Spillovers
    (1) Javed Satti
    Faculty of Management Sciences, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
    (2) Zaheer Abbas
    Assistant Professor/Head, Department of Accounting & Finance, Faculty of Management Sciences, International Islamic University Islamabad, Pakistan.