ARTICLE

DO US NEWS AND VOLATILITY IN EXCHANGE RATE EXPOSURE MATTER EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM EMERGING ECONOMIES

21 Pages : 198-208

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2020(V-I).21      10.31703/gssr.2020(V-I).21      Published : Mar 2020

Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies)

    This study is aimed to examine the impact of US News and exchange rate exposure on emerging economies of Pakistan, China, Turkey and Iran. Daily exchange rates have been used for the period Jan 1, 2003 to Dec 31, 2018 to identify the volatility in exchange rate exposure due to news effect. US News is modeled with variance equation respectively for each country exchange rate. GARCH (1,1) by Bollerslev (1986), and EGARCH (1,1) by Nelson (1991) models have been used to estimate the volatility of exchange rate dynamics. Results indicate that impact of US News is significantly positive on the exchange rate of Pakistan and China and the results of US news impact on Turkey and Iran are insignificant. Present study is helpful for investors, financial analysts and economic decision makers for understanding the changing dynamics of exchange rate volatility.

    (1) Rana Shahid Imdad Akash
    Assistant Professor,School of Business Management,NFC-IEFR, Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (2) Kashif Hamid
    Assistant Professor,Institute of Business Management Sciences,University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (3) Iqbal Mahmood
    Associate Professor,Government College of Commerce, Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan.
  • Abbes, M. B., & Abdelhédi-Zouch, M. (2015). Does hajj pilgrimage affect the Islamic investor sentiment? Research in International Business and Finance, 35, 138-152.
  • Al-Khazali, O. (2014). Revisiting fast profit investor sentiment and stock returns during Ramadan. International Review of Financial Analysis, 33, 158-170.
  • Aggarwal, R. and Harper, Jt., (2010). Foreign exchange rate exposure in domestic corporation. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 1619-1636
  • Ahmadi R., Rezayi M. and Zakeri M. (2012). Effect of exchange rate exposure on stock market: Evidence from Iran. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 11(5), 610-616.
  • Adler, M. and Dumas, B. (1984). Exposure to currency risk: definition and measurement, Financial Management, 13(2), 41-50.
  • Bartov, E., & Bodnar, G. M. (1994). Firm valuation, earnings expectations, and the exchange-rate exposure effect. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1755-1785.
  • Bartov, E. and Bodnar, G.M. (1995). Foreign currency translation reporting and the exchange rate exposure effect. Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 6 (2), 93- 115.
  • Bartram, S.M., Brown, G.W. and Fehle, F. (2003). International evidence on financial derivatives usage. University of Lancaster, University of North Carolina and University of South Carolina Working Paper.
  • Bhuiya, M., Ahmed, E., and Haque, M. E. (2015). Corporate international diversification, exchange rate exposure, and firm value' an analysis on United Kingdom multinationals. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 3(3), March 2015
  • Bartram, S.M., Frenkel, M. and Dufey, G. (2005). A primer on the exchange rate exposure of nonfinancial firms to foreign exchange rate risk. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 15 (4/5), 394-413.
  • Bartram, M. S., & Bodnar, M. G. (2007). The exchange rate exposure puzzle, Managerial FinancE, 33(9) - August 2007
  • Bartram M, S., Brown, W. G., & Minton, A. B. (2010). Resolving the exposure puzzle: the many facets of exchange rate exposure. Journal of Financial Economics. 95, 148-173
  • Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327.
  • Choi, J.J. and Prasad, A.M. (1995). Exchange risk sensitivity and its determinants: a firm and industry analysis of U.S. multinationals. Financial Management, 24(3), 77-88.
  • De Jong, A., Ligterink, J., & Macrae, V. (2006). A firm-specific analysis of the exchange-rate exposure of Dutch firms. Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 17(1), 1-28.
  • Dominguez, K.M.E. and Tesar, L.L. (2001a). A reexamination of exchange-rate exposure. American Economic Review, 91 (2), 396-400.
  • Dumas, B. 1978. The theory of the trading firm revisited. Journal of Finance, 33(3), 1019-1030.
  • Jayasinghe, P and G. Premaratne (2004). Exchange Rate Exposure of Stock Returns at Firm Level. Mimeo, National University of Singapore
  • Bodnar, G. M., & Wong, M. H. F. 2003. Estimating exchange rate exposures: Issues in model structure. Financial Management, 32(1). http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3666203
  • Koutmos, G., and A.D. Martin. (2003). Asymmetric exchange rate exposure: theory and evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 22: 365-383.
  • Gaye, H., Gencer, H.G and Musoglu, Z., (2014). Volatility Modeling and Forecasting of Istanbul Gold Exchange (IGE), International Journal of Financial Research, 5, (2), pp. 87-101
  • Hamid, K., & Hasan, A. (2016). Volatility Modeling and Asset Pricing: Extension of GARCH Model with Macro Economic Variables, Value-at-Risk and Semi-Variance for KSE. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences. 10(3), 569 - 587.
  • Hamid, K., Akash., R.S.I and Ghafoor., M (2018). Volatility of Regional Sharia Compliance Returns and US News Impact. Global Regional Review. 3(1), 294-307.
  • Helhel, Y. (2015). Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure and Its Determinants on Performance of Manufacturing Firms in Turkey, 6, (12)
  • Hodder, J. E. (1982). Exposure to exchange-rate movements. Journal of International Economics, 13(3-4), 375-386.
  • Jayasinghe, P., and Tsui. K. A. (2009). Time-varying exchange rate exposure coefficients (exposure betas): evidence from country level stock returns. Sri Lanka Economic Journal, 10 (2).
  • Jorion, P. (1990). The exchange-rate exposure of US multinationals. Journal of Business, 63(3), pp. 331-345.
  • Jorion, P. (1991). The pricing of exchange rate risk in the stock market. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 26(3), 363-376.
  • Kobersy, I.S., Kuzmina, T.I., Guseva, A.I., Lebedev, N.A., Ismagilova, T.V. & Volkova, Y.S. (2016). The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Russia's Cooperation with the Countries of EurAsEC. International Journal of Economics and Financial, 6(1S), pp. 300-305.
  • Sukcharoensin, P. (2013). Time-varying market, interest rate and exchange rate risk of Thai commercial banks. Asian academy of management Journal of Accounting and Finance, 9, 25-45.
  • Naimy., V.Y. and Hayek, M.R. (2018). Modelling and predicting the Bitcoin volatility using GARCH models. International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation. 8(3), 197-215.
  • Nelson, Daniel B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: a new approach. Econometrica, 59, 347-370.
  • Nydahl, S. (1999). Exchange rate exposure, foreign involvement and currency hedging of firms: Some Swedish evidence. European Financial Management, 5(2), 241-257.
  • Palia, D., and Thomas, Jacob (1997). Exchange rate exposure and firm valuation: New evidence for market efficiency, Columbia Business School Working Papers, New York City, New York.
  • Riman, H. B., Akpan, E. S., Offiong, A. I. (2013). Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Exchange Rate Volatility and Domestic Investment in Nigeria. British Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 4(3), 513-532.

Cite this article

    APA : Akash, R. S. I., Hamid, K., & Mahmood, I. (2020). Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies). Global Social Sciences Review, V(I), 198-208. https://doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2020(V-I).21
    CHICAGO : Akash, Rana Shahid Imdad, Kashif Hamid, and Iqbal Mahmood. 2020. "Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies)." Global Social Sciences Review, V (I): 198-208 doi: 10.31703/gssr.2020(V-I).21
    HARVARD : AKASH, R. S. I., HAMID, K. & MAHMOOD, I. 2020. Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies). Global Social Sciences Review, V, 198-208.
    MHRA : Akash, Rana Shahid Imdad, Kashif Hamid, and Iqbal Mahmood. 2020. "Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies)." Global Social Sciences Review, V: 198-208
    MLA : Akash, Rana Shahid Imdad, Kashif Hamid, and Iqbal Mahmood. "Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies)." Global Social Sciences Review, V.I (2020): 198-208 Print.
    OXFORD : Akash, Rana Shahid Imdad, Hamid, Kashif, and Mahmood, Iqbal (2020), "Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies)", Global Social Sciences Review, V (I), 198-208
    TURABIAN : Akash, Rana Shahid Imdad, Kashif Hamid, and Iqbal Mahmood. "Do US News and Volatility in Exchange Rate Exposure Matter (Empirical Evidence from Emerging Economies)." Global Social Sciences Review V, no. I (2020): 198-208. https://doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2020(V-I).21