SEARCH ARTICLE

54 Pages : 420-429

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-II).54      10.31703/gssr.2019(IV-II).54      Published : Jun 2019

Oil Price Fluctuations and Volatility of Firm Risk

    Prior literature reports that macro-economic factors of a country affect stock exchange performance and thus firm performance. Recent strands of literature and the fluctuations in currency have a substantive effect on countries' economies. These fluctuations are also a cause of price fluctuations of imports and exports. One such factor which directly affects firm performance is the oil price fluctuations. Thus, this thesis empirically investigates the effect of oil price fluctuations on firm risk for the firms listed on PSX for the period 2012-2017. Secondary data is taken from SBP, Balance Sheet Analysis Database, Pakistan Stock Exchange and the company's website in some cases. Using Panel data, results show that oil prices increase firm risk (beta), which indicates that market participants react to change in oil prices and thus increases risks. The study indicates that policymakers need to control oil prices to keep firm risk in control and thus manage the market towards a better investment environment.

    Macroeconomic Factors, Oil Price Fluctuations, Firm Performance, Firm Risk
    (1) Asif Rahman
    MS Scholar, Institute of Business Studies & Leadership, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, KP, Pakistan.
    (2) Muhammad Faizan Malik
    Assistant Professor, Institute of Business Studies & Leadership, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, KP, Pakistan.
    (3) Shehzad Khan
    Assistant Professor, Institute of Business Studies & Leadership, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, KP, Pakistan.

35 Pages : 595-610

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2018(III-III).35      10.31703/gssr.2018(III-III).35      Published : Sep 2018

Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Markets: Evidence from Frontier Markets like Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)

    The macroeconomic version of the APT is of great significance in examining the return on assets. It analyzes the estimated security return with reference to various macroeconomic variables. Despite availability of research studies related to the developed and emerging stock markets of the world, still a research gap exists for exploring the frontier markets like equity market of Pakistan. The study examines the long and short term impact of macroeconomic variables on the KSE 100 index for the period of July 1996 - June 2015. Cointegration technique and VECM models have been applied. Among these variables, GDP, inflation, exchange rate, unemployment rate, labor force cost and stock market of US were found significant for explanation of effects on return of stock market of Pakistan. The study findings have potential implications for both policymakers and investors pertaining to macroeconomic factors and stock market volatility.

    Macroeconomic factors, Arbitrage pricing theory, Stock Returns, KSE 100 index, Exchange, ADF, Cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model, CPI
    (1) Muhammad Nadeem Iqbal
    PhD Scholar, Department of Leadership and Management Studies, National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan
    (2) Muhammad Zia ur Rehman
    Assistant Professor, Department of Leadership and Management Studies, National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan.
    (3) Kashif Saleem
    Assistant Professor, Qurtuba University, Department of Science and Information Technology, D. I Khan, KP, Pakistan.