ARTICLE

THE GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE USCHINA AI AND TECH RIVALRY

  1. HOME
  2. ARTICLE

04 Pages : 45-54

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2025(X-II).04      10.31703/gssr.2025(X-II).04      Published : Jun 2025

The Geo-Political Implications of the US-China AI and Tech Rivalry

Abstract

    The emerging US-China rivalry over Artificial Intelligence (AI) and cutting-edge technologies has become a fundamental aspect of contemporary global politics. This research explores how the mission for technological dominance between these two major powers is redesigning the geopolitical landscape, transforming long-standing coalitions, and introducing new frontiers of competition such as innovation, data manipulation, and semiconductor supply chains. The research explores critical developments such as the rise of strategic tech-driven coalitions like QUAD and AUKUS in setting global narratives around AI governance. This research applies the theoretical lens of Defensive Realism, which argues that states act to preserve their security in an anarchic international system by countering potential threats. This qualitative study examines how AI leadership and control over innovative technologies are becoming strategic instruments in the restructuring of geopolitical power dynamics.

    (1) Bushra Haider
    M. Phil, Department of International Relations, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (2) Sobia Hanif
    Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi, Punjab, Pakistan.
    (3) Zeeshan Fida
    Lecturer, Department of International Relations, Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi, Punjab, Pakistan.
Fulltext PDF

References

  • Al-Hasnawi, A. H. M. (2021). America-China technology competition and its geopolitical dimensions. Multicultural Education, 7(11). http://dx.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.24125.74722

  • Allison, G., Klyman, K., Barbesino, K., & Yen, H. (2021, December 7). The great tech rivalry: China vs the U.S. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School. https://www.belfercenter.org/sites/default/files/pantheon_files/GreatTechRivalry_ChinavsUS_211207.pdf
  • Bächle, T. C., & Bareis, J. (2022). “Autonomous weapons” as a geopolitical signifier in a national power play: analysing AI imaginaries in Chinese and US military policies. European Journal of Futures Research, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-022-00202-w
  • Bisley, N. (2024). The Quad, AUKUS and Australian Security Minilateralism: China’s rise and new approaches to security cooperation. Journal of Contemporary China, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2024.2365241
  • Brands, H. (2020, July/August). The return of great-power rivalry: Democracy versus autocracy. Foreign Affairs.
  • Campbell, K. M., & Sullivan, J. (2019). Competition without catastrophe. Foreign Affairs, 98(5), 96–111. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/competition-with-china-catastrophe-sullivan-campbell
  • Center for Security and Emerging Technologies. (2024). The Quad and artificial intelligence: Opportunities and challenges [Report]. Georgetown University. https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/Quad-AI.pdf
  • Cheng, M. (2022). AUKUS: The changing dynamic and its regional implications. European Journal of Development Studies, 2(1), 1–7.  http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejdevelop.2022.2.1.63
  • Christie, E. H., Buts, C., & Du Bois, C. (2021, June). America, China, and the struggle for AI supremacy [Conference presentation]. 24th Annual International Conference on Economics and Security, Volos, Greece.
  • Computerworld. (2025, February 25). US officials probe China’s DeepSeek AI amid security and privacy scrutiny. https://www.computerworld.com/article/3812231/us-officials-probe-chinas-deepseek-ai-amid-security-and-privacy-scrutiny.html
  • Coutinet, N., & Flacher, D. (2024). Amazon, Google and the manufacturing sector: Industry 4.0 as a new battlefield for intellectual monopoly companies. Revue d'économie industrielle, 185(1), 17-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.4000/12k1v
  • Cox, L., Cooper, D., & O'Connor, B. (2023). The AUKUS umbrella: Australia-US relations and strategic culture in the shadow of China's rise. International Journal, 78(3), 307–326. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00207020231195631
  • Daniels, M., & Chang, B. (2021). National power after AI. Center for Security and Emerging Technology 
  • Ding, J., & Dafoe, A. (2021). The logic of strategic assets: From oil to AI. Security Studies, 30(2), 182-212. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2021.1915583
  • Ernst, D. (2021). Supply chain regulation in the service of geopolitics: What's happening in semiconductors? (CIGI Papers No. 256). Centre for International Governance Innovation.
  • Farrell, H., & Newman, A. L. (2019). Weaponized interdependence: How global economic networks shape state coercion. International Security, 44(1), 42-79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351 
  • Fedasiuk, R., Melot, J., & Murphy, B. (2021). Harnessed lightning: How the Chinese military is adopting artificial intelligence [Report]. Center for Security and Emerging Technologies. https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/CSET-Harnessed-Lightning.pdf
  • Ferràs-Hernández, X., Nylund, P. A., & Brem, A. (2023). The emergence of dominant designs in artificial intelligence. California Management Review, 65(3), 73-91. https://doi.org/10.1177/00081256231164362
  • France 24. (2023, March 17). China condemns AUKUS deal as 'cold war mentality'. https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/access-asia/20230317-aukus-deal-china-condemns-cold-war-mentality
  • George, A. S., & George, A. H. (2023). A review of ChatGPT AI's impact on several business sectors. Partners Universal International Innovation Journal, 1(1), 9–23. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7644359
  • Glaser, B. S. (2024). Why the Quad alarms China. Asia Society. https://asiasociety.org/magazine/article/why-quad-alarms-china
  • Global Times. (2024, September). China’s AI growth sparks global race for technological leadership. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202409/1320174.shtml
  • Govella, K. (2021). China's challenge to the global commons: Compliance, contestation, and subversion in the maritime and cyber domains. International Relations, 35(3), 446-468. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4295815
  • Grossman, R. L., & Goldman, E. O. (2024). The importance of analytic superiority in a world of big data and AI. The Cyber Defense Review, 9(2), 29-48. https://cyberdefensereview.army.mil/Portals/6/Documents/2024_Summer/Grossman_Goldman_CDRV9N2-SE-Summer-2024.pdf
  • He, Y. (2018). The trade-security nexus and U.S. policy making in critical minerals. Resources Policy, 59, 238–249. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.07.010
  • Horowitz, M. C., Allen, G. C., Kania, E. B., & Scharre, P. (2022). Strategic competition in an era of artificial intelligence. Center for a New American Security.   https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/strategic-competition-in-an-era-of-artificial-intelligence
  • Hu, B. (2021). Sino-US competition in the South China Sea: Power, rules and legitimacy. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 26, 485–504. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-020-09716-1
  • Jeong, H.-G., & Robertson, R. (2023). Beyond the battle for supremacy: Reshaping the global semiconductor supply chain (Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics & Public Policy, Vol. 3, No. 1). Texas A&M University. https://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/197720
  • Kennedy, A. B., & Lim, D. J. (2018). The innovation imperative: Technology and US–China rivalry in the twenty-first century. International Affairs, 94(3), 553–572. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiy044
  • Kirton, J., & Wang, A. X. (2023). China's complex leadership in G20 and global governance: From Hangzhou 2016 to Kunming 2021. Chinese Political Science Review, 8, 331-380. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-022-00213-9
  • Konaev, M., & Dunham, J. (2020). Russian AI research 2010-2018 [Report]. Center for Security and Emerging Technologies. https://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/CSET-Russian-AI-Research-2010-to-2018.pdf
  • Kong, Q. (2016). The “state-led-economy” issue in the BIT negotiations and its policy implications for China. China-EU Law Journal, 5, 13–29. 
  • Layton, P. (2020). Artificial intelligence, big data and autonomous systems along the Belt and Road: towards private security companies with Chinese characteristics? Small Wars and Insurgencies, 31(4), 874–897. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2020.1743483
  • Lee, C., & Johnson, A. L. (2010). A decomposition of productivity change in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. International Journal of Production Research, 49(16), 4761–4785. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2010.497507
  • Lee, K.-F. (2018). AI superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the new world order. Houghton Mifflin.
  • Lewis, J. A. (2022). Technological competition and China. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/technological-competition-and-china
  • Lin, F., & Meng, X. (2023). Stuck between the great powers: Secondary countries' responses to soft power competition between the US and China during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Chinese Political Science. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-023-09862-2
  • Liu, F., & Liu, R. (2019). China, the United States, and order transition in East Asia: An economy-security nexus approach. The Pacific Review, 32(6), 972-995. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2018.1526205
  • Lowy Institute. (2024, December 11). AUKUS? Quad? FOIP? A fragmented approach cannot counter China. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/aukus-quad-foip-fragmented-approach-cannot-counter-china
  • Luitse, D. (2024). Platform power in AI: The evolution of cloud infrastructures in the political economy of artificial intelligence. Internet Policy Review, 13(2). https://doi.org/10.14763/2024.2.1768
  • Lundvall, B.-Å., & Rikap, C. (2022). China's catching-up in artificial intelligence seen as a co-evolution of corporate and national innovation systems. Research Policy, 51(1), Article 
  • McCartney, M., Croucher, S., & Burman, T. (2025, February 14). How Deep Seek has blown open the AI race between the U.S. and China. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/2025/02/14/how-deepseek-has-blown-open-ai-race-between-us-china-2024138.html
  • Nature. (2025, January). China’s cheap, open AI model DeepSeek thrills scientists. Nature News. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00229-6
  • Osborne, C., Daneshyan, F., He, R., Ye, H., Zhang, Y., & Zhou, M. (2024). Characterising open source co-opetition in company-hosted open source software projects: The cases of PyTorch, TensorFlow, and Transformers [Preprint]. arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2410.18241
  • Paul, E. (2023). War Against China. In Australia in the Anthropocene, War Against China (pp. 61–107). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-8178-4_3
  • Pekkanen, S., Solís, M., & Katada, S. (2007). Trading gains for control: International trade forums and Japanese economic diplomacy. International Studies Quarterly, 51(4), 945-970. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00484.x
  • Perskaya, V. V., & Krasavina, L. N. (2019). The role of supply chain management in competitiveness of information and communication technologies. International Journal of Supply Chain Management, 8(5), 1102–1113.  
  • Powaski, R. E. (1997). The Cold War: The United States and the Soviet Union, 1917–1991. Oxford University Press.
  • Quad Investors Network. (2024). Report to the Quad leaders: Accelerating investment in critical and emerging technologies. https://quadinvestorsnetwork.org/news/report-to-the-quad-leaders:-accelerating-investment-in-critical-and-emerging-technologies
  • Russo-Spena, T., Mele, C., & Marzullo, M. (2019). Practising value innovation through artificial intelligence: The IBM Watson case. Journal of Creating Value, 5(1), 11-24. https://doi.org/10.1177/2394964318805839
  • Saran, S. (2024). China, Quad, and emerging technologies. Gateway House. https://www.gatewayhouse.in/china-quad-and-emerging-technologies/
  • Sayler, K. M. (2020). Artificial intelligence and national security (CRS Report No. R45178). Congressional Research Service. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45178
  • Scobell, A. (2020). Perception and misperception in US-China relations. Political Science Quarterly, 135(4), 637-664. https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.13099
  • Shah, A. R. (2023). Revisiting China threat: The US' securitization of the 'Belt and Road Initiative'. Chinese Political Science Review, 8, 84-104. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-021-00179-0
  • Sparke, M. (1998). From geopolitics to geoeconomics: Transnational state effects in the borderlands. Geopolitics, 2(2), 62-98. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650049808407619
  • Sumadinata, W. S. (2022). Analysis of the AUKUS agreement on security in the South China Sea region. Neo Journal of Economy and Social Humanities, 1(4), 265–271.   https://doi.org/10.56403/nejesh.v1i4.72
  • Tahir, M. (2024). The implications of expanding China–US political and strategic influence in the Asia Pacific. Journal of Development and Social Sciences, 5(2), 301–312. https://doi.org/10.47205/jdss.2024(5-II)29
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited. (2020, May 15). TSMC announces intention to build and operate an advanced semiconductor fab in the United States [Press release]. https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2033
  • Takach, G. S. (2024). Cold War 2.0: Artificial intelligence in the new battle between China, Russia, and America. Simon and Schuster.
  • Tellis, A. J. (2021, November 10). The Quad, AUKUS, and India’s dilemmas. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/article/quad-aukus-and-indias-dilemmas
  • The Economic Times. (2024, February 28). US House of Representatives approves Quad bill to facilitate closer cooperation between US, Australia, India, and Japan. https://m.economictimes.com/news/defence/us-house-of-representatives-approves-quad-bill-to-facilitate-closer-cooperation-between-us-australia-india-and-japan/articleshow/107752747.cms
  • Torres, P. S., & George, B. (2023). Disruptive transformation in the transport industry: Autonomous vehicles and transportation-as-a-service. International Journal of Emerging Trends in Social Sciences, 14(1), 28–37. https://doi.org/10.55217/103.v14i1.614
  • Trabucco, L., & Maas, M. M. (2023). Technology Ties: the Rise and Roles of Military AI Strategic Partnerships. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4629283
  • Waltz, K. N. (1979). Theory of international politics. Addison-Wesley. https://dl1.cuni.cz/pluginfile.php/486328/mod_resource/content/0/Kenneth%20N.%20Waltz%20Theory%20of%20International%20Politics%20Addison-Wesley%20series%20in%20political%20science%20%20%20%201979.pdf
  • Wang, Z., & Sun, Z. (2021). From globalization to regionalization: The United States, China, and the post-Covid-19 world economic order. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 26, 69–87. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-020-09706-3
  • Wu, F., Lu, C., Zhu, M., Chen, H., Zhu, J., Yu, K., Li, L. (2020). Towards a new generation of artificial intelligence in China. Nature Machine Intelligence, 2(6), 312-316. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s42256-020-0183-4
  • Yu, S. Z. (2020). All under Huawei: China’s new vision for a tech Sinica. In Palgrave studies of internationalization in emerging markets (pp. 87–114). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-47564-2_5
  • Zarrar, H., & Gichki, A. A. (2022). QUAD to AUKUS: Implications for the region and beyond. Strategic Thought, 4(1), 119–135. https://strategicthought.ndu.edu.pk/site/article/view/81

Cite this article

APA

CHICAGO

    CHICAGO : Haider, Bushra, Sobia Hanif, and Zeeshan Fida. 2025. "The Geo-Political Implications of the US-China AI and Tech Rivalry." Global Social Sciences Review, X (II): 45-54 doi: 10.31703/gssr.2025(X-II).04

HARVARD

    HARVARD : HAIDER, B., HANIF, S. & FIDA, Z. 2025. The Geo-Political Implications of the US-China AI and Tech Rivalry. Global Social Sciences Review, X, 45-54.

MHRA

    MHRA : Haider, Bushra, Sobia Hanif, and Zeeshan Fida. 2025. "The Geo-Political Implications of the US-China AI and Tech Rivalry." Global Social Sciences Review, X: 45-54

MLA

    MLA : Haider, Bushra, Sobia Hanif, and Zeeshan Fida. "The Geo-Political Implications of the US-China AI and Tech Rivalry." Global Social Sciences Review, X.II (2025): 45-54 Print.

OXFORD

    OXFORD : Haider, Bushra, Hanif, Sobia, and Fida, Zeeshan (2025), "The Geo-Political Implications of the US-China AI and Tech Rivalry", Global Social Sciences Review, X (II), 45-54

TURABIAN

    TURABIAN : Haider, Bushra, Sobia Hanif, and Zeeshan Fida. "The Geo-Political Implications of the US-China AI and Tech Rivalry." Global Social Sciences Review X, no. II (2025): 45-54. https://doi.org/10.31703/gssr.2025(X-II).04